Why Wisconsin doesn't matter....

I admit, I have never been to Wisconsin, never been to Milwaukee, I've never worn a cheese head and I've enjoyed a Packers game live. I have a soft spot for the cheese state and I'm glad the candidates are spending so much time and energy there. I was inspired by a fellow blog afterw.org to analyze Wisconsin's importance in the race.

It doesn't matter. Not even a little bit. And I can prove it. How? I'll give you a few possible scenarios... and the likely aftermath and I can boil it down to a single unlikely scenario that has Wisconsin mattering at all.

1. Obama wins big- Obama supporters will point to yet another state won and the Clinton camp will shrug. Winning 8 in a row, or 9 in a row really doesn't matter if you can't land a knockout punch. The delegate totals are nice...outside of that...makes little material difference.

2. Obama wins small-Take everything I just said and well..you get the point.

3. Clinton wins small-A surprising result to be sure...but a small win either way doesn't arrest Obama's momentum.

On the Republican Side-

4. McCain wins big-good, wrap this thing up already.

5. McCain wins small-good, wrap this thing up already.

6. Huckabee wins at all...well I'll be damned...the numbers still don't add up and the narrative doesn't change.


The one notable scenario I am left with is Hillary wins big...big means 60-40. This could be a media shifter and a real story heading into the next big set of primaries and debates. The likelihood? Not much.

Happy Voting my Wisconsin friends.

Is Change in the Wind?

Romney and Clinton coming in 2nd and 3rd respectively in the Iowa Caucus is a signal. It signals that real voters, real middle-class Iowans want the Anti-Bush. It's not surprise that Obama and Huckabee rose in the polls at nearly the same time and rode that wave to victory. When real Iowans started to pay attention they showed their desire for change, their desire for entirely new directions in their parties.

In the battle of establishment versus new guard mark this down as a small, but important victory for the new guard.