The New Spin Room

There was a lot of talk over Obama's decision to forgo the public financing system. His privately raised millions will out gun McCain from now until the election. The decision was clearly tactical, but it raises the larger specter of campaign finance reform. In many ways though, the debate is centered around a dying paradigm

Against the backdrop of an unprecedented internet fundraising campaign Barack Obama hurled himself to national prominence and now is one opponent away from the White House. However, the very same viral power of the Internet to spread Obama's message especially to the young when he needed them most, is also the very power he seeks to combat today. Fightthesmears.com is the Obama campaign's response to rumors that have swept the web. 

All of this stands as background to say that the battle of public relations and spin is moving from television to the internet. Barack Obama announced his decision to leave the public campaign system in a web video, Hillary Clinton announced her campaign online, John McCain is struggling to find his voice on the web, but is already making up ground.

So then the question becomes in this burgeoning internet age, when a candidate can not only fundraise, but indeed control their global message online, why do we need publicly funded campaigns at all? Moreover, why is Senator Obama raising hundreds of millions for the forthcoming fight with McCain? The answer of course is television. Paid television advertising is still the single most costly expense for any state-wide or national campaign. The cost of those 30-second spots all over the nation is what has spun campaign financing out of reach.

But is paid televised political advertising really necessary any more? I think Barack Obama and John McCain would tell you it is. That web video might be the future, but its not the present and plenty of Americans will be introduced to Barack Obama or John McCain via a 30-second spot on their screen.

I am not proposing a ban on political advertising on television it still holds a place in our media landscape. But with it's low cost of entry and global reach, plus the added benefit of having a message go "viral" the internet still offers the promise of a true market place of ideas. A place where not only well-monied candidates compete, but any candidate that can launch a website and start posting on youtube, can find a space on the web. All for far less in real dollars cost than television.

We are seeing the difference between being "good on the web" and "good on tv." The same way we saw the difference in the 60's between being "good on the radio" and "good on the tv." The skill sets are different, the strategy is different, and its the future of campaigning and media. 

So Barack Obama might have smashed the current campaign financing system to pieces when he opted out. But looking at the future of our politics, didn't it need to get rebuilt anyway?

Preacher Problems

One of the reasons preachers should stay out of politics is because they make so much trouble for politicians. Take a look at these clips from Senators McCain and Obama. Watch as the Senators try to squirm away from relationships with crazy religious leaders, Jerry Falwell for Senator McCain and Jeremiah Wright for Senator Obama. With friends like these....

Baracknophobia

John Stewart addresses the irrational fear that behind the mild-mannered facade, Barack Obama is intent on enslaving the white race.

"Yes, You Can Buy A Kia"

This is awful. But they should get this guy for SNL...he's got Fred Armisen beat big time.

Ben Smith on the Strategy

Ben Smith at Politico posts this piece on his blog, about the strategy for Obama as laid out by his Campaign Manager. 

Am I the only one observing this and thinking that it's still all about demography? Clinton was outspent in big state after big state and Obama still lost them why? the Demographics are still king. What Obama needs to do is find a demographic group he can win over....see his outreach to Jews, Latinos and Women. 

Video Lives Forever

Whatever capacity she is allowed to have in the Obama campaign, Hillary Clinton will doggedly fight for him through till the fall. Why? She really doesn't have any other political choice. She has a future in the Senate and perhaps as Governor of New York. If she does not fully support Obama she will become a pariah within the party. 

She already has some fences to mend. Check out this ad from the RNC taking on Obama's experience, using the Clintons' own words....

What McCain needs to do to win

John McCain wants to make this race about one thing Barack Obama.

Because if this race becomes about the issues, Iraq, Climate Change, Healthcare, Housing, or any of the other issues Americans are deeply concerned about McCain finds himself on the wrong side of the policy ledger. Therefore, McCain is going to build the largely negative argument that Obama isn't ready or qualified to be president compared to the well seasoned McCain. 

This is a mistake for two reasons, firstly, Hillary Clinton (in a better position than McCain) tried it and it backfired. Secondly, McCain doesn't want to be the old man lecturing the young man, a point made expertly by The Fix. 

Victory Coverage Around the Web

Here are some interesting takes on Obama's victory...

Roger Simon on Obama taking the mantle.

Ben Smith on the global significance and trials ahead.

The NY Times sums it up.

The Fix on what Obama said, and what Hillary meant.

A below a screen shot from the Huffington Post...

What Obama is up against

Obama's nomination is historic and the nation should be proud of the progress it has made. I started off this morning trolling youtube for a clip of Obama's speech from last night (which I shall post soon), but in searching for that clip I ran across this clip. The title is what frightened me, quoted exactly, "Dont Vote For A Nigger To Be Our President." This is what a black candidate is up against, still, in this country. 

Obama on Education

Education has been a popular riff here on policythought, with good reason. Education one of the most important domestic policy issues facing America long-term. In America today one third of all teenagers drop out of high school. The candidates have lobbed this football back and forth, with little substance. Well in a refreshing change of pace, Senator Obama talks education policy yesterday in Thorton, CO. Take the time to watch his speech, I think it gives a clear window into a change on education.




In the interest of equal time, I was able to find this, far briefer statement from John McCain. It was an interview given to the Des Moines Register, way back during the Iowa Caucuses. If anyone has any links to a newer education policy statement by McCain, please let me know and I'll put it up.

Perception and Politics

Just one more quick hit before I must away. Oregon and Kentucky have been at the polls all day. Early returns are coming in, but the the press is already carrying Obama's water for him. His campaign initially had planned to announce victory of sorts today after winning the majority of pledged delegates. As the month rolled along they decided instead to back off as the media seemed to be minimizing Senator Clinton on it's own. 

However, media outlets have widely reported the milestone for Obama today even if the campaign plans on making no mention of it. While I am no Clinton supporter, the media is ending this thing for us, whether Hillary likes it or not. 

Obama/McCain: Will this be the candid cycle?

Every season the same thing happens. We all start off with so much hope for the election cycle. New faces emerge with the potential to radically change the electorate or the face of our politics. Then as the race wears on, the battle lines become more entrenched, the mud starts to fly and in the end the voters are so disgusted with both, no one is excited any more. 

I wonder if this cycle won't be different. Not because we are such better people but because of the nature of the campaigns both of these candidates have promised to wage. The nature of the politics Barack Obama is trying to sell to the American people is supposed to elevate up above the realm of name-calling. He is essentially supposed to be changing the game in Washington. It will hurt his brand if he begins to the pivot away from that. 

McCain as well will be looking to stop attack politics. Elevating our discourse to helping the American people is part of the McCain brand and if he lets that aspect drop, Obama will too easily tag him as being part of the old-style politics. 

But I also wonder if there isn't something more cultural at work here. We are in an age not just of 24-hour spin meisters, but 24-hour bloggers and a never-ending commentary cycle. The YouTube effect has already been felt throughout the primary season, as not only can pictures and text be transmitted in the blink of an eye, but so to can video. More important than it's abundance is the nature of peer-to-peer sharing the internet enables. Six million people watched Barack Obama's speech on race in Philadelphia on Youtube. I wonder if that's why the spin camp of team Hillary has run into such opposition, maybe its the legion of bloggers there to parse her words, or compare her positions to past ones. Perhaps its when she talks about dodging sniper fire, there is video that proves it's a lie. Not just on the local news, but posted again and again on blogs and across the internet. 

The home-made-media cycle is beginning to prove its worth this cycle as not only can it be a cash cow, but it is a place for minds to come together. I wonder if these candidates consciously or unconsciously play well in this environment and we might actually see some policy thought this election cycle. 

Something Wicked this way....

Popular discussion of the West Virginia Primary dictates that despite Hillary Clinton's long expected trouncing of Obama in the contest it makes little difference to Democratic Primary. In the short that is certainly true. But when 2 in 10 voters admit in exit polling that race was a deciding factor in their decision, it triggers a worry in me. While there have been definite accounts of racism on the trail, in beginning to look at comment boards around the Internet an equally disturbing wave of counter racism is beginning to emerge. For a sample check out the comments section on Ben Smith's blog.

The narrative that is emerging among Obama supporters is that its not that he's losing the "white working-class" vote, it's that he's losing the "hick-racist" vote. West Virginia's exit poll numbers serve the narrative, but that doesn't make it any less destructive to the party and the nation. Could we be facing a breaking of this country along racial lines? Or the greatest leap forward for the advancement of mixed race and minority citizens since the peak of the civil rights movement?

If the shoe were on the other foot.....

The proof of Hillary Clinton's political power lies in the fact that she's hung in this race for this long. Any other candidate would have been outwardly pressured to leave the race by the party. The fact that Senator Clinton has not been is proof of her stature in the party, and the strange fear many dems have of the wrath of the Clinton machine. If you don't believe me, think about this....

What if it had been Senator Clinton, not Senator Obama that had won 11 straight contests after February 5th? If Senator Clinton's campaign had run up a delegate margin comparable to Senator Obama's and out fundraised him, and won Iowa, would he have been able to withstand the chorus of calls for him to get out the race? The media would have pronounced him dead long, long ago.

Ben Smith-Racism on the Trail

Ben Smith consummate blogger for Politico posts this piece about racism on the trail. It's an important, and short read. Please take a second a check it out.

America Doesn't vote on Policy...and that is OK.

It might sound ironic coming from a guy who writes a a blog dedicated to thinking about Policy and Politics. This presidential election will change the political landscape in America, it will not however, be about policy.

Why?

Because it never is. Ever since the dawn of media machines owned by political campaigns voters have learned to judge politicians not by the promises they make, the vast majority of which end up being false, but by the sense they get for leadership style.

There are real policy differences between senators Obama and McCain. But by the time it comes to voting people are going to be making judgments based largely on feel and who they identify with more. Americans understand that a campaign platform does not mean every policy will get enacted, more that this platform represents the kinds of changes a particular candidate would like to see made.

Mind you, I don't think this is a bad thing. This comes from a legitimate, if unspoken understanding of the constitution. Americans understand that while a president may drive the agenda, they cannot by themselves radically alter the nation. Our founders put in place a series of checks and balances so precise and so demanding that any president no matter how charismatic, must work the political levers to enact legislation. Ultimately, that kind of leadership prowess is what is being judged.

What Obama Should Have Said

I know my generally effusive gushing over Senator Obama's oratorical skills trend to the realm of guy-love. But there is something I wish Senator Obama would have said, something I wish he would have risked. Obama has allowed himself to be painted as an elitist. I have so many issues with the nation and the media perceiving being "elite" as bad. I for one want our elite running the country, not our average, but then maybe that's me. 

That aside. Obama refused in all of the bitter-gate controversy to give the kind of speech on economic diversity in this country as he did on racism in this country. He never took a moment like the one in Philadelphia and told the country that he was raised by a single mother, that at one point collected food stamps, that he and his wife only recently finished paying off his student loans. That he grew up playing basketball, being called Barry by his friends. In other words that his rise to relative stardom here in America is the embodiment of the American Dream. Moreover, he didn't say the one thing I missed most. I longed for a moment over the course of Pennsylvania and North Carolina and Indiana, for him to say just once. 

"Don't call me elitist because I refuse to talk to you all as if you are stupid. Don't let the other side paint me as something I'm not because I speak to truths we'd rather not acknowledge." 

But then he couldn't do that. What does it say about this leader, that he was too cautious to tell Americans what they really didn't want to hear?

Repost From Ben Smith's Blog

I realize that we already link to politico's Ben Smith though our widget but I ran across this post and I think it's important. Even while running for President, Senator Obama is brokering a cease fire. This isn't a joke, you can find the Reuters Article here.

Guam Wit Yo Bad Self!

CNN is reporting that Sen. Barack Obama won Guam's Democratic presidential caucuses Saturday by just seven votes, according to a Guam election official. With all 21 precincts reporting, Obama finished with 2,264 votes, or 50.1 percent. Sen. Hillary Clinton got 2,257 votes, or 49.9 percent. With the race as close as it is, these additional delegates could be crucial to Senator Obama.

What a minute!!! Guam??? Guam gets a vote???

Here's a scary thought for you, too. What if we end up maintaining a presence in the Middle East as we have in the Pacific after WWII? Could there someday be a primary in Tikrit? I know...that's just crazy talk. But on a day when I read that Guam is making an impact in the election, I s'pose anything's possible.

Rev. Wright resurfaces, Obama has to lay the smack down

Rev. Wright refused to go quietly. In deciding to speak again for the National Press Club Wright defended his incindiary remarks and stuck to his guns. Claiming that the US government created AIDS and dispatched it to the African American community. Barack Obama has effectively tossed Wright under the bus.

For two takes, I offer George Will, who thinks it's the right of all Obama's political oppostion to use Wright against him all season. And Eugene Robinson who wanted to give Wright the benefit of the doubt, but now thinks he needs to go.

We'll have more on policythought as the day progresses.