The Cheese has Spoken

Senator Obama has racked up his 9th contest victory in a row. My post yesterday was "Wisconsin doesn't matter." It still doesn't. Obama seems to have won handily in a state he was largely expected to win. The impetus now is on the weeks heading into Ohio. After Hawaii reports tonight, Obama will have likely stretched his streak to 10.

This is where the Clinton campaign will have a very important choice. They are heading into do-or-die territory now. Ohio and Texas will decide the nomination if Clinton loses either. If she wins both then the contest will stretch to Pennsylvania. The choice comes in how negative is she willing to go? The plagarism attack is getting a little traction, but the simple fact that the supposed aggrieved party acknowledges the sharing of ideas won't give it traction for long. The Clintons have tried everything from Obama's Kindergarten papers, to his race, to his "plagarism" to attempt to knock him off his pedestal. None have succeeded and with each round of unsuccessful attacks he is gaining strength and perhaps even some biased media coverage because he has thus far refused to go down the negative road to the extent Clinton has.

But these tactics will lead to some fracturing among the Democratic party. Moreover, it will tarnish Hillary Clinton's personal political stock going forward. She and her campaign need to decide if its worth destroying her reputation and damaging the party to continue these negative campaign tactics. Senator Chuck Schumer (Camp Hillary) and Senator Dick Durbin (Camp Barack) nearly worried themselves silly on Meet the Press this weekend.

The race is far from over, but the voters are starting to trend and Senator Clinton will have a choice about how she wants to compete and the nation has a choice of whether they'll accept her tactics.

From CBS

CBS news is first out the gate with an Obama victory prediction based on exit polls. It seems as though the NY Times is also going with that prediction.

Some interesting trends to note...

Obama beat Clinton among women. Very narrowly, 51% to 49% splitting the female vote in a predominantly white state is a promising sign for Obama.

However, the so-called "age gap" is still there. Clinton won the 65 and older crowd handily.

with 14% reporting

While some readers hate the early reports, with 14% of the precincts reporting Obama maintains a lead though it appears to be shrinking. He's currently at 56% to Clinton's 43%

As it tightens the results will be less and less important.

Why Wisconsin doesn't matter....

I admit, I have never been to Wisconsin, never been to Milwaukee, I've never worn a cheese head and I've enjoyed a Packers game live. I have a soft spot for the cheese state and I'm glad the candidates are spending so much time and energy there. I was inspired by a fellow blog afterw.org to analyze Wisconsin's importance in the race.

It doesn't matter. Not even a little bit. And I can prove it. How? I'll give you a few possible scenarios... and the likely aftermath and I can boil it down to a single unlikely scenario that has Wisconsin mattering at all.

1. Obama wins big- Obama supporters will point to yet another state won and the Clinton camp will shrug. Winning 8 in a row, or 9 in a row really doesn't matter if you can't land a knockout punch. The delegate totals are nice...outside of that...makes little material difference.

2. Obama wins small-Take everything I just said and well..you get the point.

3. Clinton wins small-A surprising result to be sure...but a small win either way doesn't arrest Obama's momentum.

On the Republican Side-

4. McCain wins big-good, wrap this thing up already.

5. McCain wins small-good, wrap this thing up already.

6. Huckabee wins at all...well I'll be damned...the numbers still don't add up and the narrative doesn't change.


The one notable scenario I am left with is Hillary wins big...big means 60-40. This could be a media shifter and a real story heading into the next big set of primaries and debates. The likelihood? Not much.

Happy Voting my Wisconsin friends.