Monday, February 18, 2008

Why Wisconsin doesn't matter....

I admit, I have never been to Wisconsin, never been to Milwaukee, I've never worn a cheese head and I've enjoyed a Packers game live. I have a soft spot for the cheese state and I'm glad the candidates are spending so much time and energy there. I was inspired by a fellow blog to analyze Wisconsin's importance in the race.

It doesn't matter. Not even a little bit. And I can prove it. How? I'll give you a few possible scenarios... and the likely aftermath and I can boil it down to a single unlikely scenario that has Wisconsin mattering at all.

1. Obama wins big- Obama supporters will point to yet another state won and the Clinton camp will shrug. Winning 8 in a row, or 9 in a row really doesn't matter if you can't land a knockout punch. The delegate totals are nice...outside of that...makes little material difference.

2. Obama wins small-Take everything I just said and get the point.

3. Clinton wins small-A surprising result to be sure...but a small win either way doesn't arrest Obama's momentum.

On the Republican Side-

4. McCain wins big-good, wrap this thing up already.

5. McCain wins small-good, wrap this thing up already.

6. Huckabee wins at all...well I'll be damned...the numbers still don't add up and the narrative doesn't change.

The one notable scenario I am left with is Hillary wins big...big means 60-40. This could be a media shifter and a real story heading into the next big set of primaries and debates. The likelihood? Not much.

Happy Voting my Wisconsin friends.

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