Monday, February 11, 2008

Obama Sweeps, Hillary Shakes things up

The democratic race for the nomination has been a see-saw battle. This week, Obama was the fat kid. Winning Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, the US Virgin Islands and Maine, the Senator form Illinois has momentum going for him this month. Despite what many writers, pundits and even this blog predicted, that Febraury would be a good month for Obama, the Clinton camp is trying to stop the bleeding. Patti Solis Doyle is out and Maggie Wilson is in as campaign manager.

The question is when does the see-saw tilt back? The expectations game is already in effect with Washington DC, Maryland, and Virginia two states and a district where Obama is seen to have an advantage. HRC's camp is preparing the media for losses and what will be seen as the see-saw slamming to the ground when Obama picks up eight straight winds. Clinton's best chance at redemption comes in Virginia, but this blogger doesn't see that happening.

So when does team Hillary begin to rebound? Conventional wisdom says the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania are her best chance to rack up delegates. Those primaries are in march, check out the election calendar post earlier this month. The question becomes can Obama take the momentum (in a year where there has been none) and change the message of his campaign to be more inclusive of less educated and Latino voters. If he can begin to tilt the message enough to win even one of those big delegate count states, it might be hard for the Clinton camp to make a real superdelegate ploy as the convention draws nearer.

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