Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Elephant in the Room

John McCain is the prohibitive favorite in the GOP race right? Right?

Well when you win NY and California in one night then things look pretty darn good. However, and this is a big however, more states voted against John McCain than voted for him. If the Republican party had proportional rules similar to the democrats there would be no clear cut front runner for the Republicans. The point is that McCain still has to sell himself to the GOP if he is to have firm support in the general and indeed sew up the nomination. Don't look for the straight talk express to stop driving this month, February 12th could be a decisive day for him. Romney is on the ropes and getting vanquished in Beltway primary might finally take the last bit of air out of his tires.

Unless of course Mike Huckabee insists on remaing the surprise of the season. Huckabee must win Louisiana and at least one beltway state this month to remain viable. He needs to prove he can win a state that is not in the south, but can't afford to lose any of those contests either. Look Maryland or Virginia have the strongest chance of turning for Huckabee.

Contrary to popular belief I think at this point, with the nomination McCain's to lose, Huckabee staying in the race helps Romney. You could argue Huckabee hurt him yesterday. But going forward the more fracture and doubt that can be introduced into the race the better for both Romney and Huckabee.

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