Monday, May 5, 2008

The Dems Latest Round

Here's a quick primer for those whose attention span for Democratic Primaries has completely been tapped out. 

Senators Clinton and Obama continue to battle. Tomorrow Indiana an North Carolina get their crack at deciding this thing. Obama came into this week with a lead in North Carolina (around 10 points depending on the poll you read) and still maintains a lead. He is expected to win the state, as always the question will be by how much. Senator Clinton will look to close the gap and continue her fighting on theme. 

Indiana by the accounts of all those watching this even more closely than I, is said to be a toss up. Obama polls slightly ahead but usually well within the margin of error. Here's what I think is going to happen. 

The win is going to be by the slimmest of margins in Indiana, whoever gets it. In either scenario Senator Clinton will not quit. However, look for a flood of super delegates (which to this point has only been a consistent trickle) to move toward Obama after the primaries. If he essentially nets a delegate and popular vote win out of the two states the mathematical logic of a Clinton win is much harder to come by. The only way Hillary stops the flood is if she runs the table and wins both Indiana an North Carolina. 

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