Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Has the General Election Begun?

On Monday I wrote my prediction piece on the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. While dead-on (if I do say so myself) about the results of the tallies last night, we're all waiting to see if the predicate of my prediction will also hold up, but given the tone of the Clinton camp this morning, I suspect that it will.

The math is against her, but that's not new, what is new is that despite the emergence and reemergence of Rev. Wright, the most politically damaging personal relationship of the cycle, Senator Obama held his lead in NC and drew her to the narrowest of margins in Indiana. Her continuing argument to the super delegates has grown much, much weaker. I doubt, however, that she will concede of her own accord.

Never having worked on a national campaign, but having worked on lots of non-profit theatrical productions (the parallels are often striking) I always look to the donors. Clinton made a public plea for more cash last night. But she'll need another flood of cash to keep this thing going. Her ability to solicit it might have a lot to do with whether or not she continues.

Taken from this morning's NY Times:

Clinton advisers acknowledged that the results of the primaries were far less than they had hoped, and said they were likely to face new pleas even from some of their own supporters for her to quit the race. They said they expected fund-raising to become even harder; one adviser said the campaign was essentially broke, and several others refused to say whether Mrs. Clinton had lent the campaign money from her personal account to keep it afloat.

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