Monday, April 21, 2008

Handicapping the Pennsylvania Race

Common punditry is telling the world that Hillary Clinton needs to win
the primary in Pennsylvania tomorrow by at least double digits to have
a "credible" win. Let me just blog it right now. Any Clinton win, no
matter the margin keeps her in the race. The only thing that could
possibly end the primary race tomorrow is an Obama win.

There are a few reasons. After the Texas primary Hillary Clinton was
pronounced the winner and gained a big stake in media momentum.
However, when the results of both the primary and the caucuses were
calculated, Barack Obama came out with more delgates. The media is not
going to wait here either. A win, by any more than five points keeps
the Clinton campaign alive with another primary win.

The other reason is that the Clinton camp, particularly the candidate
herself feels a moral imperative to continue on. Whatever the private
motivations are, the Clinton campaign is not in a position to quit yet.

Don't let that minimize the importance of Pennsylvania though. While
the flow of super delegates toward Obama continues and is likely to,
he needs to show he is competitve in a state with the diversity and
political complexity of Penn. If he cuts it close super delegates will
be much more inclined to throw their support behind him.

Happy voting Keystone State.

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