Wednesday, March 5, 2008

The Year of "Nomentum" Continues

In January and Iowa victory for Obama didn't lead to a win in New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton's wins of NY and California didn't push her to victories for the rest of February. And last night, despite winning 11 straight contests across the country Obama couldn't seal the deal in either Texas or Ohio, giving Senator Clinton the ability to soldier on despite a murky path to the nomination.

Some questions to ponder over the next seven weeks until Pennsylvania.

Delegates-despite her big state wins, the margins weren't very wide, so the delegate math stay squarely with Obama. His campaign will be quick to point out that she will need to win 70% of the remaining delegates just to tie Obama's delegate count.

SuperDelegates-They were with Clinton when she was the main name in the pack. Obama's surge in wins gained him a portion, but the vast amount are undecided. Can they be courted in the time before April 22nd?

Michigan and Florida-The uncontested victories for Senator Clinton came in contests that weren't supposed to matter. The Democratic party will need to come to some arrangement. The media will get bored between now and the next major contest. Expect them to shine a little light on this problem, as now the Clinton campaign has time to make its case.

What narratives do the candidates choose?

Obama will have a higher popular vote and more delegates for the next seven weeks no matter what the final tallies are today. This is likely to be his narrative. Senator Clinton can say she has won all the big states and many of the swing states, the ones you need in the general election, how could she not be the nominee?

How much does this help John McCain?
Now that he is the sole contender left on the GOP side, do these seven weeks serve as time to build his reserves? Can he coalesce his message? Solidify his base? This is critical building time for him. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

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